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Moreover, the "unauthorized trading" of Kweku Adoboli, similar to Kerviel, did not date back a long way. Adoboli had executed operations since October ; his failure and subsequent arrest occurred in Stock speculators and investors usually need a stock broker such as a bank or a brokerage firm to access the stock market.
Since the advent of Internet banking , an Internet connection is commonly used to manage positions.
They may use several information resources, some of which are strictly technical. Using the pivot points calculated from a previous day's trading, they attempt to predict the buy and sell points of the current day's trading session.
These points give a cue to speculators, as to where prices will head for the day, prompting each speculator where to enter his trade, and where to exit.
An added tool for the stock picker is the use of "stock screens". Primary benefit associated with stock screens is its ability to return a small group of stocks for further analysis, among tens of thousands, that fit the requirements requested.
There is criticism on the validity of using these technical indicators in analysis, and many professional stock speculators do not use them.
Although many companies offer courses in stock picking, and numerous experts report success through technical analysis and fundamental analysis , many economists and academics state that because of the efficient-market hypothesis EMH it is unlikely that any amount of analysis can help an investor make any gains above the stock market itself.
In the distribution of investors, many academics believe that the richest are simply outliers in such a distribution i.
When money is put into the stock market, it is done with the aim of generating a return on the capital invested. Many investors try not only to make a profitable return, but also to outperform, or beat, the market.
Thus, according to the EMH, no investor has an advantage in predicting a return on a stock price because no one has access to information not already available to everyone else.
In efficient markets, prices become not predictable but random, so no investment pattern can be discerned. A planned approach to investment, therefore, cannot be successful.
This "random walk" of prices, commonly spoken about in the EMH school of thought, results in the failure of any investment strategy that aims to beat the market consistently.
In fact, the EMH suggests that given the transaction costs involved in portfolio management, it would be more profitable for an investor to put his or her money into an index fund.
In Benoit Mandelbrot analyzed the variations of cotton prices on a time series starting in There were two important findings.
Instead, the data showed a great frequency of extreme variations. Surprisingly, these patterns of self-similarity were present during the entire period from to , a violent epoch that had seen a Great Depression and two world wars.
Mandelbrot used his fractal theory to explain the presence of extreme events in Wall Street. The basic idea that relates fractals to financial markets is that the probability of experiencing extreme fluctuations like the ones triggered by herd behavior is greater than what conventional wisdom wants us to believe.
This of course delivers a more accurate vision of risk in the world of finance. The central objective in financial markets is to maximize income for a given level of risk.
Standard models for this are based on the premise that the probability of extreme variations of asset prices is very low. These models rely on the assumption that asset price fluctuations are the result of a well-behaved random or stochastic process.
This is why mainstream models such as the famous Black—Scholes model use normal probabilistic distributions to describe price movements.
For all practical purposes, extreme variations can be ignored. Mandelbrot thought this was an awful way to look at financial markets.
For him, the distribution of price movements is not normal and has the property of kurtosis , where fat tails abound.
This is a more faithful representation of financial markets: the movements of the Dow index for the past hundred years reveals a troubling frequency of violent movements.
Still, conventional models used by the time of the financial crisis ruled out these extreme variations and considered they can only happen every 10, years [ citation needed ].
Other contributions of his work for the study of stock market behaviour are the creation of new approaches to evaluate risk and avoid unanticipated financial collapses.
Outside of academia, the controversy surrounding market timing is primarily focused on day trading conducted by individual investors and the mutual fund trading scandals perpetrated by institutional investors in Media coverage of these issues has been so prevalent that many investors now dismiss market timing as a credible investment strategy.
Unexposed insider trading , accounting fraud , embezzlement and pump and dump strategies are factors that hamper an efficient, rational, fair and transparent investing , because they may create fictitious company's financial statements and data, leading to inconsistent stock prices.
Throughout the stock markets history, there have been dozens of scandals involving listed companies, stock investing methods and brokerage.
A classical case related to insider trading of listed companies involved Raj Rajaratnam and its hedge fund management firm, the Galleon Group.
On Friday October 16, , he was arrested by the FBI and accused of conspiring with others in insider trading in several publicly traded companies.
On January 7, , its Chairman Raju resigned after publicly announcing his involvement in a massive accounting fraud. In Italy, Parmalat 's Calisto Tanzi was charged with financial fraud and money laundering in Italians were shocked that such a vast and established empire could crumble so quickly.
When the scandal was made known, the share price of Parmalat in the Milan Stock Exchange tumbled. Parmalat had sold itself credit-linked notes , in effect placing a bet on its own credit worthiness in order to conjure up an asset out of thin air.
After his arrest, Tanzi reportedly admitted during questioning at Milan 's San Vittore prison, that he diverted funds from Parmalat into Parmatour and elsewhere.
Tanzi was sentenced to 10 years in prison for fraud relating to the collapse of the dairy group. The other seven defendants, including executives and bankers, were acquitted.
Another eight defendants settled out of court in September Day trading sits at the extreme end of the investing spectrum from conventional buy-and-hold wisdom.
It is the ultimate market-timing strategy. While all the attention that day trading attracts seems to suggest that the theory is sound, critics argue that, if that were so, at least one famous money manager would have mastered the system and claimed the title of "the Warren Buffett of day trading".
The long list of successful investors that have become legends in their own time does not include a single individual that built his or her reputation by day trading.
Even Michael Steinhardt , who made his fortune trading in time horizons ranging from 30 minutes to 30 days, claimed to take a long-term perspective on his investment decisions.
From an economic perspective, many professional money managers and financial advisors shy away from day trading, arguing that the reward simply does not justify the risk.
Attempting to make a profit is the reason investors invest, and buy low and sell high is the general goal of most investors although short-selling and arbitrage take a different approach, the success or failure of these strategies still depends on timing.
The problems with mutual fund trading that cast market timing in a negative light occurred because the prospectuses written by the mutual fund companies strictly forbid short-term trading.
Despite this prohibition, special clients were allowed to do it anyway. So, the problem was not with the trading strategy but rather with the unethical and unfair implementation of that strategy, which permitted some investors to engage in it while excluding others.
All of the world's greatest investors rely, to some extent, on market timing for their success. Whether they base their buy-sell decisions on fundamental analysis of the markets, technical analysis of individual companies, personal intuition, or all of the above, the ultimate reason for their success involves making the right trades at the right time.
In most cases, those decisions involve extended periods of time and are based on buy-and-hold investment strategies.
Value investing is a clear example, as the strategy is based on buying stocks that trade for less than their intrinsic values and selling them when their value is recognized in the marketplace.
Most value investors are known for their patience, as undervalued stocks often remain undervalued for significant periods of time.
Some investors choose a blend of technical, fundamental and environmental factors to influence where and when they invest. These strategists reject the 'chance' theory of investing, and attribute their higher level of returns to both insight and discipline.
Financial fail and unsuccessful stories related with stock trading abound. Every year, a lot of money is wasted in non-peer-reviewed and largely unregulated publications and courses attended by credulous people that get persuaded and take the bill, hoping getting rich by trading on the markets.